How EU leaders sold out Burma

When David Cameron backed the suspension of EU sanctions on Burma in April 2012, he emphasised in no uncertain terms that they would return if President Thein Sein’s administration reneged on democratic reforms. Spelling out the difference between suspending the sanctions and lifting them completely he said that the EU’s stance would “make it quite clear to those who are against reform that should they try to obstruct the way of the reformers, then sanctions could come back."

One year on however, the Prime Minister has joined other EU leaders in a shock move to throw away their economic bargaining chip by scrapping sanctions permanently, leaving European businesses free to fill government coffers regardless of political conditions or human rights violations.

The decision has been met with anger from human rights groups who point out that the Burmese government not only continues to detain hundreds of political prisoners, but has recently carried out violent crackdowns on peaceful demonstrations and airstrikes on civilian villages in Kachin State, where over 100,000 people have now been displaced by conflict.

All the while, deadly communal violence against Burma’s Muslim population continues to spiral out of control. Mob killings began in Arakan State last June and were recently replicated in the Northern town of Meiktila where Mosques were burnt, scores of people were killed and hundreds were driven from their homes. A recent Human Rights Watch report noted that “frequently the police did nothing to stop the violence against Muslims and in many cases joined with Buddhist mobs to attack predominantly Muslim villages.”

However, rather than use the threat of reintroduced sanctions to pressure the Burmese government over prisoner amnesties, free speech, peace talks with Kachin rebels and protections for religious minorities, EU leaders are sending an absurd multi-million dollar message of support for the status quo. Particularly stomach churning is the betrayal of Aung San Suu Kyi by Cameron and his peers, who were quick pose with the inspirational opposition leader for photo opportunities but flagrantly ignored her pleas not to permanently lift sanctions.

Germany it would appear, played the largest part in securing this sorry state of affairs. For though almost all member states now support the end of economic sanctions, the stage was set by Angela Merkel’s morally bankrupt administration seeking to trash the EU arms embargo on Burma, in-spite of continuing military atrocities including extrajudicial executions and gang rapes by government troops. Consequently, states that oppose selling weapons to fuel the abuses were forced into a compromise over economic sanctions, in order to save the arms embargo.

Things do not come much more ironic than the EU hanging Burmese democrats out to dry just six months after the bloc received a Nobel Peace Prize. Yet for the political prisoners, the Kachin children in IDP camps and the Muslim civilians fearing for their lives, the irony will be trumped by the tragedy.

 

Technorati Tags: Burma,EU,European Union,Sanctions,arms embargo,Burmese,government,Thein Sein,President,David Cameron,William Hague,Angela Merkel,Aung San Suu Kyi,National League for Democracy,NLD,Kachin,civil war,KIA,Kachin Independence Army,KIO,Kachin Independence Organisation,communal violence,Muslims,Muslim,Islam,Mosque,Rakhine,Meiktila,persecution,Letpaduang,copper mine,protest,Nobel Peace Prize

5 reasons why we should welcome Bulgarian and Romanian immigration

Over recent weeks, UK politics has become increasingly dominated by excited rhetoric and angry exchanges over the predicted “influx” of Bulgarian and Romanian citizens when transitional immigration controls expire at the end of 2013.

Yet public fears stoked by the tabloid press are based on a gross misunderstanding of how immigration affects the UK. Rather than a panicked and prejudiced response, we should be looking at the facts and welcoming freer movement from Bulgaria and Romania with open arms:

1 Immigrants make a significant economic contribution to the UK…

Despite the hyperbole about immigrants milking the welfare state, they actually make a net contribution to the UK economy; constituting 13% of the total tax-paying workforce and just 6.5% of total benefit recipients. Furthermore, there is absolutely no empirical evidence that immigration reduces job opportunities for UK-born workers, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research robustly debunking accusations from the anti-immigration lobby as late as 2012.

2 …and bring invaluable skills

Going beyond the economic figures, millions of immigrants have brought crucial experience and expertise here. Few of those who bemoan immigration have any qualms about using the NHS, despite the fact the some 30% of its doctors and 40% of its nurses were born overseas. And whilst references to Mo Farah are becoming somewhat clichéd, it is hard to ignore the fact that a Somali immigrant is one of Team GB’s greatest successes.

3 We enjoy sharing other people’s cultures

On March 17, thousands of British people with no personal connection to the Emerald Isle will join London’s Irish community to celebrate St. Patrick’s day at a huge open-air party in Trafalgar Square. Hundreds of thousands more white British will join the West Indian community for the Notting Hill Carnival in summer. Its a far cry from the ‘No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish’  signs that appeared in shop windows when these communities first came to the UK, and is a brilliant illustration that once the initial fear of newcomers evaporates, people more-often-than-not enjoy sharing their cultures.

4. Migration is not a one-way street

The easing of restrictions on Bulgarian and Romanian citizens’ access to the UK is not a stand-alone measure; it is part of a wider EU framework that allows people from any member state to live and work in another. Millions of UK citizens have taken advantage of this including more than 700 000 living in Spain, almost 300 000 living in the Republic of Ireland and more than 200 000 living in France. Tens of thousands have also set up in states that joined the EU during the last round of accessions before Bulgaria and Romania.

5. Our tolerant society is something to be proud of

Hysterical media and political commentary linking Bulgarian and Romanian immigration to job losses, crime and even social unrest stands to stoke racism and undermine the commendable level of tolerance in contemporary UK society. Whilst extremist groups such as the English Defence League continually dredge up memories of 1980s racial tensions, UK society has by and large moved on. Compared to many other European states, race-related violence is rare and openly racist parties fare badly in elections.

That is something to be proud of, not something to be jeopardised by ignorant scare-mongering about the Bulgarians and Romanians who will shortly be joining the long success story of UK immigrant communities.

Technorati Tags: Romania,Bulgaria,Romanian,Bulgarian,UK,United Kingdom,Britain,EU,European Union,immigration,immigrants,communities,racism,welfare,benefits,workers,work,jobs,employment,unemployment,housing,crime,tabloids,tabloid press,scaremongering,UKIP,UK Independence Party,EDL,English Defence League,Mo Farah,Irish,Polish,West Indian,St. Patrick's Day,Notting Hill

Taking Timbuktu

Little more than two weeks after French troops began to assist the Malian army in a counter-offensive against Islamist rebels, they have entered Goa and Timbuktu leaving just one major town left under the control of jihadists.

To many this will come as a great relief. The scenes of devastation that troops are witnessing as they move through Timbuktu's historic streets bear testament to the wanton destruction that the Islamists brought to Northern Mali: thousands of beautiful ancient shrines, mosques, relics and churches have been smashed and burnt in an iconoclastic spree that reached every corner of the World Heritage Site.

The human cost is even higher: many of the city’s residents have fallen victim to fundamentalist purges and summary justice including amputations, beatings, floggings and public executions. ‘Crimes’ ranging from smoking or playing music, to pre-marital sex or wearing the wrong kind of clothing, have all been cause for brutal treatment; though as in any system without due process even many of those who toed the line were rounded up and punished.

Whilst the French have been welcomed as liberators however, the Malian troops they are clearing the way for may bring little relief to civilians in the North. Over the past week reports have remerged of significant human rights abuses by government forces including extrajudicial executions and rape, raising fears of bloody reprisals against the region’s Tuareg population.

The grievances of the Tuareg have never been properly addressed by the central government and decades of armed rebellion have left a legacy of bitterness on both sides. It was a temporary alliance between secular Tuareg rebels and militant Islamists that first drove the army out of Northern Mali last year, leaving many troops now spoiling for revenge as they push back with French support.

There is also a track record abuse within the army’s ranks and desertions are frequent boding ill for discipline particularly if, as expected, the jihadists begin a protracted guerrilla campaign rather than simply meting away. Furthermore, the continued military interference in government since overthrowing the democratically elected President and handing power to a weak transitional administration, has given officers a certain degree of impunity.

This leaves a dilemma for the French government, which will be keen to withdraw troops as quickly as possible once the bulk of the fighting is over but will be reluctant to leave a vengeful and ill-disciplined government force running amok against the Tuareg civilian population. Already the Pentagon has moved to distance itself from the support that America provided to the Malian army…for François Hollande and the French troops who facilitated the liberation of Timbuktu that will not be so easy.

Technorati Tags: Malian,Mali,Islamists,coup,Timbuktu,shrines,human rights,flogging,stoning,ambutations,abuses,intervention,ECOWAS,Economic Community of West African States,Tuareg,Azawad,al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,AQIM,Ansar Dine,Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa,Iyad Ag Ghaly,Yahya Abu Hammam,Boko Haram,France,planes,bombings,UK,RAF,C17,Hollande,Cameron,USA,Pentagon,training,flights,army abuses

Algeria: after the dust has settled

Following the barbaric murder of civilian oil workers in Algeria by Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s jihadist militia, David Cameron has called for the world to come together in order to confront the growing threat from violent Islamist groups across North Africa.

These sentiments, which have been echoed by leaders all over the world are perfectly understandable; recent years have seen an ominous resurgence in armed Islamist outfits throughout the Sahel and surrounding regions, including a large number falling under the banner of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Nonetheless, any practical steps flowing from such statements must be part of a coherent response that takes account of all nuances and local circumstances, rather than a knee-jerk reaction to the brutality that unfolded at the In Amenas gas field.

Talk of a “robust security response” to “hunt down” terrorists could easily backfire, as recent history in Iraq and Afghanistan has shown only too well. That is not to say the UK and other international powers should completely refrain from efforts to defeat fanatics like Belmokhtar, but this must never be allowed to happen in a manner that alienates the people of North Africa or ultimately acts as a recruiting tool for extremists as so many ‘Western’ interventions have before.

France’s decision to put troops on the ground in Mali, ostensibly one of the reasons for Belmokhtar’s offensive, was seemingly necessary due to the speed Ansar Dine’s advance on the capital and delays in deployment of troops from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). However, a number of questions now hang over the next step, not least concerning the broader political instability in Mali and the role of secular armed Tuareg groups who have alternately supported and fought against the multitude of Islamist militias at various points over the past year. Whilst French deployment has brought welcome immediate relief therefore, it could yet turn disastrous if the wrong decisions are made on these issues.

Similarly, in Algeria the situation is far from a clear-cut case of helping the government to defeat violent jihadists. Algerian politics is still heavily influenced by the 1990s civil war that began with a military coup following the electoral victory of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), and subsequently developed into a multi-faceted conflict between the army and various Islamist militias at the cost of more than 150 000 lives. Endless questions remain about responsibility for many of the worst atrocities committed during the war, with the only certainty being that no side fought without recourse to massacres and torture.

This raises another issue around Cameron’s pledge to “thicken ties” with governments in affected nations: in many cases their responses to terrorism are simply unjustifiable. One only needs to look to Nigeria, where the abhorrent and bloody insurgency by jihadist militia Boko Haram has been met with callous state actions including torture, secret detention and extrajudicial killings. ‘Local solutions to local problems’ is a worthy aspiration, but when those local solutions involve severe human rights abuses, it is rarely advisable or productive to throw support behind them.

Perhaps one of the most critical factors at risk of being eclipsed amidst the focus on tackling the African jihadist threat, is the dire humanitarian situation still affecting millions of people across the Sahel. A combination of drought and food prices has resulted in rapidly escalating food insecurity, malnutrition and disease over recent years; and whilst stabilising regional conflict zones is important to tackling this, it should never be forgotten that poverty and desperation themselves create fertile ground for extremism. Aid and development initiatives to address the crisis should not be side-lined in the rush to take military action against extremists in the region.

The threat to North Africa is clear and the involvement of the international community is important; but rushed, unwelcome or ill -conceived support will be no help at all.

Technorati Tags: Algeria,hostage,oil,BP,In Amenas,North Africa,Mokhtar Belmokhtar,Al-Qaeda,Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,Ansar Dine and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa,Malian,Northern Mali,Mali,France,internvention,Cameron,Boko Haram,Nigeria,Economic Community of West African States,ECOWAS,Tuareg,rebels,David Cameron

Mali–intervention, then what?

International intervention against the alliance of Islamist groups in control of Northern Mali has been inevitable for some time, yet the acceleration of action by the country’s former colonial ruler has taken many by surprise.

It was a sudden push South towards the capital by Ansar Dine, one of largest rebel militias, that spurred France with logistical UK backing to rapidly deploy troops and launch bombing raids this week, before the main African-led intervention had even begun.

That decision it would seem, was a necessary evil. If Ansar Dine and its associated groups had seized control of more territory they would naturally become harder to displace. That would not be in anyone’s interest, least of all those forced to endure the arbitrary round-ups of anyone deemed to have violated the militias’ warped version of Islam, and the public executions that often follow.

Of course the primary concern for the French and other European governments is not necessarily those horrendous human rights abuses, but rather the spectre of an Islamist stronghold in North Africa that could threaten their national interests or ultimately their own citizens. The French force it appears, has seen off any chance of rebel advances South in the immediate future, apparently buying time for the main intervention force led by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to find its feet.

Still, necessary as it may have been, the speed and scale of France’s involvement could yet generate painful side-affects. The presence of European forces at the forefront of the intervention will be an easy recruiting factor for the kind of foreign Jihadists who have been pouring into the North since last year, whilst the heavy use of airpower increases the risk of civilian causalities. 

And despite Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius’ throwaway remark “stopping the terrorists, that's done", the French government would do well to heed the law of un-intended consequences; after all it was the removal of Colonel Gaddafi, following extensive international intervention, that fuelled Mali’s rebellion in the first place.

Most importantly, all of the states committing to this intervention must be prepared to play the long-game; for as the situation is Somalia has shown time and time again, such forays are never simple and require political and well as military will to produce any lasting solution.

For one thing, the plight of the Tuareg people must be addressed if peace is to be found. Whilst the current international focus is understandably on Ansar Dine and their ilk, it was secular Tuareg rebels angry at the Malian government’s treatment of their people , who allied with the Islamists last year thus providing a spring-board to their position today. Such groups retain considerable arms and followers, giving them a key stake in what happens next.

Similarly, the role of the army in Malian politics must be curtailed. A military coup last year was intended to remedy shortcomings against the Northern insurgency but had precisely the opposite effect by creating widespread instability and allowing the rebels to advance. Despite a formal handover to an interim civilian President, coup-leader Amadou Sanogo continues to interfere in the running of the country, casting continuing doubt on stability post-intervention.

And as always, the wider regional picture must also be taken into account. Jihadists from countries including Sudan, Libya, Algeria, Senegal and the Ivory Coast are all reported to have arrived in rebel-held towns; many via the network of Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM). Members of Nigeria’s brutal Boko Haram have also been sighted. Whilst French bombing raids may remove the immediate threat from rebel strongholds, only an on-going regional security effort can have any hope of preventing small foreign insurgent groups from de-railing Mali’s future.

Overall, international intervention stands to liberate thousands of people suffering under the brutality of Islamist control in Northern Mali and to bring some degree of stability to a nation in unprecedented turmoil…but it is only the start.

Technorati Tags: Mali,Malian,Islamists,coup,Timbuktu,shrines,human rights,flogging,stoning,ambutations,abuses,intervention,ECOWAS,Economic Community of West African States,Tuareg,Azawad,al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,AQIM,Ansar Dine,Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa,Iyad Ag Ghaly,Yahya Abu Hammam,Boko Haram,France,planes,bombings,UK,RAF,C17,Hollande,Cameron

Justice in Delhi

The eyes of the world will be on Delhi tomorrow, as six men go on trial for the barbaric rape and murder that has shaken India to its core.

Unprecedented public anger at the evil act has manifested itself in street protests across the country; those marching are directing their rage not only at the accused but at the cultural, political and law enforcement systems that have consistently failed to protect women from abuse.

It now appears inevitable that the protestors’ efforts will change India for better, at least to some extent. Chauvinistic media portrayal of women, shortcomings in the way that police handle rape cases, silence over domestic abuse and a host of other horrendous norms have been thrust into the spotlight, with politicians vowing to take action.

However, recent developments threaten a more ominous outcome when it comes to India’s justice system. There is now a growing demand for the accused to face the death penalty, a rarely-used last resort in Indian law .Prior to the only surviving perpetrator of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks being hanged amidst scenes of celebration last year, no one had been put to death in India since 2004. As Ananth Guruswamy, head of Amnesty International India pointed out in a brave article this week, executing these six men will detract attention from the underlying problems of sexual violence in Indian society whilst squandering a vital chance for the country to confine the death penalty to its history.

Furthermore, and perhaps even more worrying than the sentence itself, is the context in which the trial will be taking place. Senior parliamentarians have publicly called for hangings, a fast-track court has been set up despite the poor track record of such ventures, and lawyers following the urging of top judges have decided en-masse to refuse their services to the defence.

It is a key principle of democracy that no matter how heinous a crime, even one as barbaric as this, politicians must not interfere with the judicial process; corners must not be cut in establishing a verdict; and those standing trial must be entitled to adequate representation. Chief Justice Altamas Kabir has been amongst a minority warning that “a swift trial should not be at the cost of a fair trial”, yet such voices are being drowned out amid widespread (and understandable) public demands for retribution at the gallows.

It will be a disaster if India’s politicians and judiciary undermine the justice system in order to quell anger on the streets, not least because the precedent of doing so could ultimately lead to miscarriages of justice in the future. Giving a fair trial to people who have brutally ended a young woman’s life will be painfully uncomfortable- but it is essential.

Technorati Tags: India,Delhi,gang rape,rape,murder,protests,death penalty,execution,women,women's rights,Amnesty International,trial,fast-track court,defence,lawyer,boycott,judge,Altamas Kabir,bus,Sushma Swaraj,hang,hanged,Mohammad Ajmal Amir Kasab,Mumbia,gunman,mob justice

Burma’s airstrike on democracy

The Burmese government airstrikes on Kachin State over the past week are the latest escalation in a one-sided conflict that drags the country’s reform process further into disrepute and raises fresh questions about how the international community should deal with President Thein Sein.

It was mid-2011 when government troops broke their 17 year ceasefire with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA); a defensive rebel group which despite its name seeks autonomy and human rights for Kachin State rather than secession from Burma. The precise motivations behind the initial ceasefire violation remain murky, but are widely regarded as stemming from the government’s business interests in exploiting natural resources from Kachin State, and the KIA’s refusal to disarm without a political solution to end the decades-long marginalisation of the Kachin people.

Regardless of the driving force, over the following eighteen months well resourced Burmese troops have relentlessly pounded the ill equipped KIA and their allies in the All Burma Student’s Democratic Front (ABSDF). They have also brutalised Kachin civilians, more than 50 000 of whom have fled to squalid IDP camps to escape the rapes, torture and extrajudicial killings. Reports from human rights groups on the ground reflect the very worst days of Burma’s various military dictatorships, with troops hacking the limbs of suspected rebels, drunkenly abusing women and destroying entire villages seemingly at random.

The attacks by military aircraft and helicopter gunships over the past week added a horrendous new element to the violence, with shocking video footage from the Free Burma Rangers sparking strong international condemnation. However, the offensive has not eased and fears abound that a ‘final assault’ on the KIA headquarters at Laiza may be imminent.

This perhaps provides the biggest blow yet to the reformist credentials of Thein Sein’s administration, which had already been sullied by the army’s apparent role in stoking sectarian violence against Rohingya Muslims, and the violent dispersal of protestors at Letpadaung copper mine. The International Crisis Group - due to present the President with its Pursuit of Peace Award in New York, and the UK government – set to welcome him on an historic state visit, will both now be considering whether such moves were overly premature. After all, heaping such respect upon any other leader so closely associated with pogroms, crackdowns and all-out warfare against ethnic minority groups would be almost unthinkable.

Yet there is another possibility regarding the situation in Kachin State which raises a whole new set of concerns; namely that the President is not actually in control of the situation at all. Whilst his government has now acknowledged the airstrikes, initial reports were met with confusion and denial based upon conflicting messages from the front line. It is all too reminiscent of earlier stages in the conflict when the army seemingly ignored orders from Thein Sein to cease its offensive. An army acting out of government control –one key indicator of a failed state, may present an even larger problem for Burma than a President with a dubious commitment to reform. Whilst international and political pressure can be brought to bear on a head of state, it is far harder to influence faceless military officers who may hold the real power. 

Finally as is so often the case in South East Asia, the influence of the Chinese dictatorship must also be taken into account. It is widely recognised that the offensive against Kachin State could not have taken place without approval from Beijing. Burmese ground troops and aircrafts have launched attacks from the Chinese side of the Kachin-China border, whilst the Chinese government has remained uncharacteristically quiet about shells straying into its territory.

This is of course to be expected: the vast majority of natural resources stripped from Kachin State are either directly extracted by Chinese firms or sold to China by Burmese government proxies.The Chinese government would therefore like nothing better than to see the Kachin resistance destroyed; yet it remains unclear whether Beijing is encouraging Thein Sein to crush the KIA, supporting his own ambitions to subdue Kachin State, or undermining his authority by dealing directly with officers in the Burmese army.

When asked last year where Burma’s democratic transition was on a scale of one to ten, Aung San Suu Kyi replied “we’re approaching one”…it is becoming ever more apparent just how right she was. 

Technorati Tags: Kachin,Kachin State,Kachin Independence Organisation,KIO,Kachin Indepdence Army,KIA,All Burma Student's Democractic Front,ABSDF,airstrike,Laiza,China,Beijing,CCP,Thein Sein,President,USDP,Aung San Suu Kyi,NLD

Mines of Monywa- what are the limits of Burma’s reform?

Over recent weeks, events around the Letpadaung copper mine near Monywa have sent shockwaves through Burma’s fragile reform process. For months local people including Buddhist monks, had been demonstrating against the environmental damage and land seizures associated with the operation- a joint venture between a Chinese company and another owned by the Burmese military. Then, in the early hours of 29 November, riot police swarmed into the protest-camps, setting them on fire and injuring dozens of civilians.

In the ensuing days, a number of those who had escaped hospitalisation were held on charges of illegal demonstration, whilst across the country prominent activists such as U-Gambira were rounded up in an apparent attempt to stem the spread of solidarity protests.

The whole incident reflects the continuing absence of rule of law in Burma; which alongside the military abuses in Kachin state and the state-sponsored sectarian violence in Arakan state, presents a stark reminder that the worldwide embrace of President Thein Sein’s administration may have been somewhat over-enthusiastic.

The President was last month recognised alongside Aung San Suu Kyi as Foreign Policy Magazine’s top political thinker of 2012. And having recently visited Washington at the invitation of Barak Obama, he will return to the US next year to receive the International Crisis Group’s eminent In Pursuit of Peace Award at a lavish ceremony in New York. The ex-general will also be jet-setting to London, as part of a rapidly blossoming friendship that this week saw the first UK trade delegation to arrive in Rangoon for decades.

In the wake of events around Monywa, more people than ever are quite rightly questioning whether this is all a bit lavish for the boss of an administration that protects its environmentally disastrous money-making operations by crushing dissent with fire-bombs, tear gas and waves of arbitrary arrests.

They are right of course, yet at the same time it would be naive to overlook aspects of the saga that demonstrate just how far Burma has come. For whilst images of burnt monks on hospital beds naturally stir up memories of the crackdown against the Saffron Revolution in 2007, the differences between the two situations could not be more significant.

Back then the military regime massacred people on the streets without even a cursory nod to due process; but following the violence of 29 November Thein Sein’s administration set up a commission of inquiry and placed none other than Aung San Suu Kyi in the Chair. The authorities also heeded her request for a formal apology, undoubtedly in part out of fear that solidarity protests would escalate, but nonetheless illustrating a more conciliatory approach to the propaganda and lies of five years ago. The overall situation is therefore not so much a clear-cut illustration that nothing has changed, but rather a continuation of the complex and messy governance that has characterised the reform process so far.

The cold hard fact remains that Burma is nowhere near democracy and the abuses taking place across the country on a daily basis should be judged against basic human rights norms, not merely in comparison to the more flagrant violations of previous governments. This means that Thein Sein must be held to account for the attacks on protestors and the ethnic pogroms in Burma, not sycophantically lauded as a reformist hero just because he is less tyrannical than his genocidal predecessors.

However, despite the on-going abuses activists should resist the temptation of completely writing-off this administration’s reformist credentials. In just a few short years Aung San Suu Kyi has gone from being a political prisoner held in near total isolation, to chairing an inquiry into the government’s behaviour in front of both Burmese and international media. Developments like that were previously unthinkable and there are undoubtedly many people waiting in the wings of the government who would like to take Burma back there. Balancing scrutiny and encouragement of the more reform-minded elements will be hard, but it is essential.

Technorati Tags: Burma,Monywa,Letpadaung,copper mine,monks,protest,crackdown,tear gas,fire bombs,Thein Sein,Aung San Suu Kyi,International Crisis Group,ICG,Foreign Policy Magazine,U-Gambira,Arakan,Rakhine,Rohingya,Kachin,UK,USA,Barak Obama,Hugo Swire

Burma’s earthquake- a tragedy and a test

Details of the earthquake that struck Burma on Sunday morning are still sketchy. Various initial death tolls are relatively low (between four and twelve) but the true extent of damage is likely to be far worse; at 6.8 magnitude it is larger than the quake that devastated Christchurch last year, and Burma’s emergency infrastructure is nowhere near that of New Zealand’s. Ominously the epicentre lies near to Mandaly, a city of over one million people second only in size to Rangoon. Tremors were felt as far away and Bangkok and at least two strong aftershocks have been reported.

As things pan out in the comings hours and days the earthquake may represent the biggest test yet for President Thein Sein’s reformist USDP government. Just over four years ago, when Cyclone Nargis decimated Burma’s Irrawaddy Delta region, the military government in which Thein Sein served, covered up early warnings then flagrantly lied about the scale of the disaster once it hit.

As the floods, death and disease spread, they exacerbated the problem further by physically blocking the delivery of relief, expelling aid workers and seizing a large proportion of any assistance that was able to get through. In a fit of paranoia and callousness the regime refused entry foreign to boats full of food and medical supplies, leaving the international community to seriously consider flying unauthorised military aid drops to the desperate population.

Of the 140 000 who died, many were direct victims of the regime’s actions: a Crime Against Humanity in most eyes. 

The response to Sunday’s earthquake then, is a chance for Thein Sein’s new administration to prove that things have really changed. Accurate information about the impact, dedication of resources towards relief and unhindered access for external agencies are nothing short of essential if the President is to prove that his is a government serious about taking Burma forward.

Two years into the reform process serious doubts continue to linger about its authenticity. Despite significant political prisoner releases, fair by-elections and the easing of censorship, several familiar dictatorial traits remain. The ongoing military attacks against civilians in Kachin State, the 238 political prisoners still behind bars, and the abhorrent sectarian attacks stirred up by the government in Arakan State have led many commentators both inside and outside Burma to question just how much things have really progressed.

The official response to this natural disaster may go some way to providing an answer.

Technorati Tags: Burma,Myanmar,earthquake,cyclone,Nargis,government,regime,USDP,aid,relief,blocked,Crime Against humanity,November,2012

Yudhoyono- the tyrant who came to tea

Buckingham Palace has played host to some pretty unscrupulous characters over the years including Vladimir Putin, Hu Jintao and even Robert Mugabe. This week the odorous list is extended to include Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is not only staying as a guest of Her Majesty but is being personally presented with a prestigious British Knighthood.

Such a warm welcome for the tyrant will be a bitter blow to those languishing under his rule, not least the people of occupied West Papua who harboured such high hopes of British support when David Cameron entered Downing Street in 2010. Having previously met with their inspirational independence leader Benny Wenda, many Papuans hoped that Cameron would take a stand against the Indonesian occupation of their country. Instead the Prime Minister remained silent as Yudhoyono’s troops continued to brutally torture their countrymen and open fire on demonstrations with live ammunition.

Whilst Yudhoyono resides and dines in luxury at Buckingham Palace, one of the most prominent figures in the West Papuan struggle Filep Karma,will remain locked in a squalid cell, serving a sentence for nothing more that raising the banned West Papuan flag. Filep has been frequently denied medical treatment and has been recognised around the world as a prisoner of conscience, yet Yudhoyono sees fit to keep him and others incarcerated for daring to peacefully challenge Indonesia’s colonialist whims.

Back in Indonesia itself, hundreds of thousands more suffer under repulsive state discrimination. Ahmadi Muslims and Christians frequently face brutal mob attacks, spurred on by government hate-speech and met with ludicrously weak sentences for the perpetrators. Recently, in the first case of its kind, a 30 year old citizen named Alex Aan was imprisoned for professing his atheism on facebook. Indonesia-watchers point to such developments as evidence of increasing government hostility against freedom of belief and an on-going erosion of human rights.

This trend appeared lost on David Cameron in April this year, when during a trade visit to Indonesia he somewhat baffling claimed that Yudhoyono’s clique ”neither compromises people's security nor their ability to practise their religion". Unfortunately such sycophancy is likely to be repeated this week when the two leaders meet again, in between royal engagements.  

It is time for the UK and the rest of the international community to get tough on Yudhoyono – tea at the palace and a knighthood is not the way to do it.

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Mali–intervention beckons

In crisis-hit Northern Mali it almost certain the international military intervention is just around the corner – and for many of its citizens this cannot come soon enough.

It has been some ten months since a counter-productive military coup destabilised the country and allowed a loose alliance of nationalist Tuareg and Islamist rebels to take control of territory equivalent in size to France. Since then the military has handed over to a shaky civilian administration, whilst the rebels’ marriage of convenience has broken down, with the Islamist groups coming out on top.

The consequences for ordinary Northerners have been catastrophic, following the imposition of a brutally harsh interpretation of Sharia Law across the region. Those accused of robbery have had their limbs hacked off, couples found having sex outside of wedlock have been stoned to death and other ‘offenders’ are regularly flogged, all publicly before terrified crowds.

Yet things are set to get far worse: already the rebels are making lists of unmarried mothers, raising fears of mass-executions. And all the while they are regularly   destroying beautiful ancient shrines, on the basis that they do not fit with their own warped version of Islam. As for the on-going food crisis, rebel activity is both hampering relief in Mali itself and exacerbating shortages in neighbouring states by driving huge flows of refugees over the borders.

These abuses have played a part in the increasingly urgent international response, which in recent weeks has seen a UN resolution laying the groundwork for intervention and the Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) begin to draw up a military strategy.

Beyond human rights, an even more pressing concern for many states is the continental or even global implications of a new base of power for radical Islamist groups, especially given that vast numbers of foreign Jihadists have flocked to the area bolstering al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the local incarnation of the international network. With al-Shabab on the back-foot in Somalia and moderate successes against Boko Haram in Nigeria, any consolidation of power by the rebels would present a major set-back to the struggle against violent Islamism in Africa, which is seen as a key battleground in the broader global picture. For this reason states across the world are keen to line-up behind the imminent ECOWAS intervention, with France in particular already promising practical logistical support.

However whilst it brings wider support for intervention, the international-jihadist context of the crisis also threatens to make this long and bloody affair. Furthermore, whilst the Tuareg nationalist militias have no love for the Islamists and may even play some role in deposing them, they will be disinclined to allow the Malian state to reassert its authority in the territory they regard as Azawad. On top of all this, friction remains between Mali’s weak government and assertive military, with the possibility of a future coup still lingering. ECOWAS troops may then ultimately find themselves caught between a jihad, a secessionist conflict and a national power struggle.

Right now- for the sake of those suffering under the rebels and for the wider region, ECOWAS intervention seems the only viable option…but it won’t be an easy one.

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