South East Asia: Ignore it at your peril

To anyone who's interested in foreign affairs last week's leaders debate was a let-down. Instead of ninety minutes of questions on the UK's place in the world, we were treated to 45 minutes on Afghanistan, Europe, climate change and (bizarrely, though not quite unexpectedly) the Pope - before the topic of conversation turned back to deficits, duck islands and the like.

Personally I'd been hoping for at least one question relating to South East Asia. Not just because it's a personal interest of mine but because it's a region that, over the next decade, is going to shape the world - and inevitably affect the UK - in ways that our politicians don't seem to head or even comprehend. Take the following scenarios....

1. The year is 2012- the political situation in Thailand has totally broken down, leaving the country in violent disarray. Next door in Burma civil war is raging between the ruling junta and ethnic rebel groups which were forced into conflict ahead of the 2010 election. This has left the Golden Triangle (one of the worlds largest heroin producing regions, spanning the Thai-Burma border) completely outside the control of any government and run by various militias. The inevitable price-wars that follow result in a flood of cheap heroin into the UK and Europe....

2. The year is 2015 -a continuing increase of ethnic and rural protests in China has begun to threaten the government's position. In a bid to generate national unity they order an invasion of the Senkaku Islands -an uninhabited territory of which both China and Japan claim ownership. Japan responds by pumping funds into its minimalist military and deploying war ships. Vietnam- which has its own island disputes with China - also deploys vessels. The US is more worried about Taiwan and puts its navy -currently stationed in the Taiwan straits - on high alert. India- which had fought several border wars with China and still disputes inland territory- mobilises its army. China responds in kind. Tension mounts....

3. The year is 2020 - Burma's nuclear programme (supported by Russia and North Korea) has come to fruition. Isolated and impoverished the erratic regime opts to sell the plutonium it produces to the highest bidder. The world reacts with panic as rumours of contact with terrorist groups spread. The solution is not clear- Burma is firmly within China's sphere of influence and any military action would surely antagonise the Chinese government. But Beijing seems to have little control over the regime's next move....

4. The year is 2025 - the effects of climate change, exacerbated by the Chinese government's damming projects in Tibet, have led to major water shortages in Bangladesh. Thousands of refugees head across the border into India- now one of the world's economic power houses - generating ethnic tensions and threatening the state's stability. Foreign businesses begin to withdraw a rate that threatens to trigger global economic chaos...

These aren't scare-stories: they are all very possible, even (in some cases according to some commentators) likely. The world's engagement with China, approach to the ongoing crisis in Burma, reaction to increasing violence in Thailand and stance on the occupation of Tibet is not just important because of the human costs today - but because of the huge political effects (for the whole world) tomorrow. Often it seems that Western government leaders ignore South East Asia....they do so at their peril.