What now for Côte d'Ivoire?

More than four months after Laurent Gbagbo lost the Côte d'Ivoire Presidential election yet chose to hold onto power through violence, the UN peacekeeping force stationed in the country is finally taking physical steps to dislodge him.  Of course their strikes on military bases and Gbagbo’s own compound are formally a response to the massacres of civilians and the shooting of eleven peacekeepers by Gbagbo’s troops over the past week (regime change is not within the force’s mandate), but no one is in any doubt that they are intended to assist the troops of democratically elected and internationally recognised President Alassane Ouattara – who claim to be just hours away from taking the main city of Abidjan.

Sadly this is in many ways too little too late.  Back in November 2010, as soon as Gbagbo’s plans to extend his decade long rule through the barrel of a gun became clear, there were widespread calls for international intervention.  Yet the African Union – still relatively week and weighed down with fighting in Somalia, was nowhere to be seen.  The regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was left largely impotent by its most powerful member- Nigeria- being in the midst of its own election campaigns.  And the broader international community, still pre-occupied with Iraq, Afghanistan and later the Arab Revolutions, was reluctant to bolster the existing UN force or strengthen its mandate.

The result was a long stand-off peppered with death squads, shootings and an outflow of refugees that eventually hit crisis level.  Then, seemingly left without any other recourse, Ouattara’s troops began a rapid military advance to take control of the country once and for all.  The North-South civil war that the election was meant to mark a final break from virtually reignited; racial and religious divisions continued to meld with the political ones; and on Saturday some one thousand people were slaughtered in the town of Duekoue.       

Perhaps the greatest tragedy in all of this is that Ouattara’s troops were undoubtedly involved in that massacre (probably as the main perpetrators) as well as numerous other such war crimes.  Thus, even if the UN succeeds in helping to remove Gbagbo – as in now almost inevitable – Ouattara will come to power not on the back of a democratic election, as could have been the case, but on the back of barbarity and murder.  Furthermore, the tensions that have been allowed to build up over the past four months, will almost certainly result in revenge attacks on those who stood by Gbagbo – a situation that, owning to the tribally and religiously tainted politics of Côte d'Ivoire, could rapidly spiral into ethnic cleansing.

It goes without saying that this was never going to be an easy transition and that even if the international community had helped to force Gbagbo out immediately after the election, tensions between the two sides would still have turned violent.  However, the human cost and the country’s future prospects have unarguably been cast far bleaker by the long power struggle that has taken place.

The big issue now is what happens next.  Neighbouring states, most likely swayed by the huge refugee influxes that they are facing, have begun to discuss intervention to aid stabilisation, whilst mass media coverage (and the chilling echoes of Rwanda) have strengthened support for broader international assistance.  However these developments could come in many forms and from many different angles.  It will be tempting to prioritise stability over justice but both will be needed in the long-run.  Individuals and ethnic groups aligned to Gbagbo– whatever their crimes, must not be allowed to become victims of extra-judicial purges; whilst Ouattara, though the democratically elected leader, must be held to account for any war crimes that his troops have committed.  The world must learn from the mistake of giving Paul Kagame a free hand to terrorize Rwanda after his troops liberated the country in 1994; but on the other hand, serving Ouattara with an ICC arrest warrant the day after his inauguration could simply cast Côte d'Ivoire back into further turmoil.

With the peace process clearly in tatters, the old dictator exiting in an orgy of violence and the new leader riding to victory on the back of crimes against humanity the only certainty is that Côte d'Ivoire’s toughest times are still to come.

Technorati Tags: Intervention,Ivory Coast,Côte d'Ivoire,Gbagbo,Ouattara,UN

Museveni, Gbagbo and the fate of Africa in 2011

It is beyond doubt that we are living through historic times; yet whilst North Africa is being rapidly transformed through democratic revolution, nations throughout the remainder of the continent are continuing to experience the same tyranny and misery that they have suffered for decades – with little sign of any impending change.

Last month, shortly after Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubabrak were deposed by popular demonstrations, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni secured an extension to his twenty five year rule, through an election won on the back of corruption and violence. Museveni, once lauded as a democrat and a reformer, has long shown his true colours through torturing opponents, supressing free speech, conscripting child soldiers and encouraging the orchestration of rampant, violent homophobia . His longstanding use of the barbaric Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency as an pretext to strengthen his grip on power and oppress the Acholi people in Northern Uganda, further underscores the president’s callousness – with many commentators even suggesting that he has deliberately held back on defeating the rebels for these very reasons. Ensuring electoral victory by rigging ballots, harassing other candidates, imprisoning opposition activists and channelling public funds into his campaign was therefore, a simple matter of course.

Sadly yet predictably, international criticism of these antics has been markedly muted; undoubtedly stemming at least in part from Museveni’s willingness to help combat the Islamist insurgency in Somalia, a threat that greatly worries the likes of the USA, but one which they are reluctant to tackle directly, owing largely to previous ill-fated ventures into the chaotic territory. As long as Uganda continues to send troops to Somalia and bear the brunt of reprisal attacks, the relative silence surrounding Museveni’s domestic tyranny is unlikely to be broken.

In a somewhat similar vein, Ivorian dictator Laureent Gbagbo has been able to extend his long and tyrannical rule, despite loosing a presidential election to opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara in November last year. Although he has not quite escaped scrutiny from the international community in the same manner as Museveni, Gbagbo has been able to hold onto power through sheer thuggery, despatching his militia and troops to prevent Ouattara from taking up office by attacking his cabinet members and murdering his supporters. Reports of mass graves, people being butchered by soldiers and death squads attacking houses in the middle of the night are now routine and on the back of this brute force, Gbagbo has for four months evaded the domestic protests, economic measures and international isolation intended to topple him. Like Mwai Kibaki and Robert Mugabe before, he has categorically lost a popular ballot (despite launching a vicious campaign of intimidation against voters) but has nonetheless clung onto the reigns of control.

This does not bode well for the continent of Africa in what will be a crucial political year. Cameroon, Gambia, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad and Zambia are just a few of the many African states set to hold elections (legislative, presidential or both) over the next twelve months and whilst the fates of Ben Ali, Mubarak (and hopefully soon Gaddafi) have demonstrated the fragility of dictatorships, the survival of Museveni and Gbago illustrate that a combination of rigged electioneering, careful diplomacy and outright violence can still allow even the most vile and worn-out tyrants to retain power. Whilst the uprisings in the North must be supported and celebrated therefore, it is crucial that tyranny further South is not accepted or ignored simply because dictators go through the motions of an election.

What remains to be seen is whether, in the wake of the Northern revolutions, populations throughout Africa will reject future rigged results and take to streets in greater numbers. Far lower levels of literacy, internet access and phone ownership make this less likely, but as we have all learned over the last few months, nothing can be taken for granted. Similarly, a renewed public focus around the world may make it harder for governments in Europe and North America to remain silent on-or tacitly support- African dictatorships. It’s just possible therefore, that the combination of numerous elections and a vibe of reform from the North could threaten the vile authoritarian trends that the likes of Museveni and Gbagbo have so far continued. An already historic year could yet become even more significant.