What now for North Korea?

After seventeen years of brutal rule Kim Jong-Il is finally gone. 
The surreal outpouring of mourning, mirroring that following the death of his father back in 1994, was predictable in light of the incessant propaganda around the man known as “Dear Leader” and the relentless coercion to show respect to him.  Yet the legacy of his reign is one of horror for North Korea’s twenty-three million people: from famine caused by economic mismanagement, to a network of concentration camps, where human experimentation and gas chambers cast grim echoes of the worst abuses in human history.

The question is, what comes now?  The answer, in all likelihood, will be shaped by three key factors…

Is Kim Jong-un a reformer?

For some time it has been clear that Kim Jong-Il’s third son Kim Jong-un was being groomed for leadership, yet very little is known about him. 
Swiss educated, young and facing huge pressures at home (over food shortages) and from abroad (over nuclear weapons), he may be the man to make changes in North Korea and start breaking down the totalitarian system created by his grandfather. 

Such hopes are not entirely unrealistic- after all, who could have imagined that Thein Sein, a long-standing figure in neighbouring Burma’s abhorrent military regime, would lead the country in the dramatic (if very much incomplete) reforms witnessed this year.

Yet, having been picked over his older siblings, and undoubtedly subjected to years of conditioning, the chance of Kim Jong-un carrying on down the same path as his late father is equally likely, if not more so.  Certainly he has not shown any reformist tendencies of yet, but then again, having had little outing on the public stage, neither has he had the chance to.

How deep do the cracks run?
Of course, there is a significant question mark over how much power the new Kim will even have.  Transition periods are never easy for any regime and the fact that North Korea has already undergone one family succession process, by no means guarantees a second.

And, despite the in-built reluctance for anyone to move against the express will of the late leader, some analysts suggest that Kim Jong-un will wield much less control than his father, making him far more answerable to a shadowy network of military generals and Workers Party officials.  His distinct lack of political experience may even leave him acting as little more than a figurehead, with the serious decisions being made elsewhere.

This creates a new level of uncertainty, as whilst the outside world knows very little of Kim Jong-un, we know even less about those sitting behind him.  If his control is limited, the will of maverick generals, potential dissidents, power-hungry officials and rapid ideologues may all come into play.

What will China do?

But the real power may not actually be in North Korea itself.
For China’s bizarre relationship with its neighbour is far more complex that the apparent ideological bond underpinning the official statement of condolence; in which the Chinese government called on the North Korean people to “unite around the Korean Workers’ Party, and under the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong Un, turn grief into strength and march forward for building a socialist strong country”.

The powers-that-be in Beijing, in fact have far more pressing concerns than such ideological rhetoric: simultaneously seeking to secure regional influence, whilst fearing a North Korean state-collapse and refugee surge; terrified that Pyongyang may ignite a regional war, whilst enjoying the international power and status that comes with being able to (supposedly) hold a nuclear pariah at bay.    

And ultimately, with its geographical proximity, economic ties and political relationship, China remains the one state truly capable of exercising some degree of influence over the new North Korean regime – whichever form its takes; whilst ruthlessly pursuing its own agenda – whatever that transpires to be.

Whilst the future of North Korea will almost certainly be different therefore, it remains unclear exactly what it will look like.  The new leader, the old officials and the Chinese government will all have a huge role to play…with the continued suffering, or the eventual freedom, of millions, as the result.

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North Korea- a monumental task…and a duty to act

Mass concentration camps where thousands are tortured, executed or worked to death are almost invariably associated with the Nazis and a bygone period of gross inhumanity unsurpassed ever since.  Yet away from the eyes, and all to often the attention, of the international community, such camps exist at this very moment – in North Korea.

The similarities between the regimes of Kim Jong-Il and Adolf Hitler are in fact far closer than many world leaders would be comfortable to admit: even gas chambers and human experimentation have been documented by defectors.  And the scale of the atrocities is almost incomprehensible: satellite photographs obtained by Amnesty International earlier this year reveal a network of camps estimated to hold as many as two hundred thousand detainees.

These people are often held for crimes that were committed by family members, sometimes before they themselves were even born.  In North Korea, guilt by association is built into the oppressive legal system and falling foul of the regime is enough to condemn a family for three generations; as a consequence many of those detained are just children- forced to undertake gruelling manual labour and held in inhumane conditions.  One report describes a child thrown into a tiny cell, too small to stand up or lie down in, for a period of eight months.  Like the adult detainees they regularly risk starvation or freezing to death without clothes or shelter in the gruelling winters.

But despite the extent of this barbarity, governments and even major human rights organisations have been reluctant to tackle it head on.  Their reasons are clear: the issue of nuclear weapons, which overshadows all dealings with North Korea; Kim Jong-Il’s proximity to China, and the diplomatic protection that brings; the difficulty of obtaining information about such a secretive state from which escape is so rare; and the overwhelming pessimism of ever achieving real progress.

Yet all of this is about to change.

Over the past week more than thirty human rights organisations have come together to form The International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea.  The magnitude of this is dramatic: North Korean defectors and refugees, joining with veterans of freedom struggles around the world and experienced organisations to take on the regime in an unprecedented manner.

Their first goal- to achieve a U.N. Commission of Inquiry on crimes against humanity in North Korea, is certainly an achievable one.  With some twenty-two thousand North Korean refugees in South Korea alone there is a huge pool of potential evidence, even if Kim Jon-Il’s regime expectedly refuse to allow access to a UN Rapporteur.  The organisations involved also have the resources to support an investigation – which owing the scale and nature of the atrocities in question would be hard for UN member states to block, even with China seeking to protect its client.

Of course many will ask what such an inquiry will actually achieve?  Certainly it will not bring instant respite for the those trapped in North Korea’s modern day Birkenaus; but it will reflect an historic step forward in the struggle for human rights there.  Ha Tae Keung, President of Open North Korea points out that the new coalition will ”help move human rights to centre stage in all of the international community’s interactions with North Korea” –something that will inevitably be bolstered if the Commission of Inquiry is secured.  States will no longer be able to side-line the concentration camps, torture and execution as they discuss nuclear and security issues, shifting the plight of those suffering to the highest diplomatic levels.

It will also present a further obstacle to China’s appalling deportations of those who manage to cross the border.  For over a decade the international community has protested against Chinese authorities returning refugees to face death or a life of torture, so far with little success.  A formal Commission of Inquiry, will at least be harder to flagrantly violate, perhaps protecting some escapees from the horrors that would await their return.  Even that would make it worthwhile.

Perhaps most importantly of all though; this is the start of a concerted fight-back against atrocities that the world has ignored for too long.  With a leadership handover looming, and the recent illustrations that even the most entrenched regimes can come crashing down, this could be the opportune moment.  Those involved in the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea have a monumental task ahead of them.  They need, and deserve, all of our support.

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Courting the new Kim?

In dictatorial states a change of leader can occasionally signify an opportunity for reform; perhaps the most prominent historical examples being Mikel Gorbachev and Zhao Ziyang, who respectively sought to overhaul the old Soviet and Chinese Communist systems (the former ultimately more successful than the latter). However more often than not, new officials are carefully selected and groomed to maintain the status quo and thus ensure the continuity of the ruling regime. Kim Jung-Un, son of North Korean dictator King Jong-il and heir apparent to what is increasingly being described as the world's only communist monarchy, is no exception.

His recent promotions and high profile public appearance at Sunday's military parade appear to be the culmination of a selection process designed to ensure the ongoing dominance not only of the Korean Wokers Party but of the Kim Dynasty, over this most abusive and secretive of states. Given that other, older relatives were passed over for the leadership, there is little hope that he will set about pulling apart the horrendously oppressive system that his father and grandfather strived so hard to create.

Yet at the same time, the international community's relationship with the newcomer may represent the only glimmer of hope for North Koreans.

For, despite the ruling regime's abhorrent behaviour (including human experimentation, man-made famine and brutal summary executions), its maverick military actions (most recently the unprovoked sinking of a South Korean warship) and, of course, its possession of nuclear weapons; there is little opportunity or political will to depose it. Even during the most extreme years of the Bush administration, when North Korea was labelled part of the 'Axis of Evil', the US realised that its weapons programme and geographical position within China's sphere of influence made military intervention all but impossible. And the South Korean government, whilst vocally supporting a reunified democratic Korea is paradoxically terrified of the prospect. This is unsurprising as, were the North Korean dictatorship (and consequently the North Korean state) to collapse, the economic and social costs of reunification would cripple South Korea- even with the most generous of aid packages from international donors. Meanwhile, over six decades of clandestine repression have destroyed any kind of internal opposition movement, leaving no avenue for activists or governments to promote democratic reform. Similarly, the totalitarian economic controls and absence of foreign business ventures in the state means that sanctions will have little effect other than increasing the peoples' suffering.

It seems therefore, that the only option remaining is for the international community to build links with Kim Jong-Un upon his assent to power and slowly attempt to generate influence that may eventually alleviate the plight of North Koreans to some small extent. Repulsive though the concept of courting such a leader may be, the unique political scenario posed by North Korea (marking it out from states such as Burma, Sudan or Zimbabwe, all of which have democratic alternatives and could feasibly make transition away from dictatorship) apparently leaves no other choice. This is not to say that Kim Jong-Un should be welcomed, praised or endorsed; or that the prospect of ever achieving political freedom for the citizens of North Korea should be discarded. Rather, it is to say that democratic governments, our own included, should seek to use factors such as Kim Jong-Un's European education or North Korea's involvement in international football tournaments, as opportunities to build a rapport that could eventually lead him to be more receptive when it comes to issues such as human rights.

For the sake of twenty four million people it has to be worth a try.