South Sudan's stormy birthday

After a long, always troubled and often bloody journey, South Sudan's independence is just days away. For many it understandably seemed that this moment would never come. After all, January's decisive referendum to divide Africa's largest state, whilst one of the final pieces in the 2005 treaty that formally ended two decades of civil war, did nothing to halt the fighting.

Various warlords, most likely armed and sponsored by the North's despotic president Omar Al-Bashir, wrecked havoc throughout the state-to-be. By April over 1000 were dead, the World Food Programme had pulled out leaving 240 000 more facing starvation and Northern rhetoric over the disputed region of Abyei threatened further conflict.

Shortly after tension boiled over, with Al-Bashir's troops illegally moving into Abyei and later clashing with Southern forces. Fighting spread to South Kordofan, which falls North of the border line but has a high population of ethnic Nubans loyal to the South: they are still being targeted in what has already been described as ethnic cleansing. This latest round of conflict was compounded by clashes in Unity State and Blue Nile State, bringing the total number of displaced persons to over 100 000 before tenuous agreements were reached, committing all sides to pulling back and setting up committees to address territorial disputes. A treaty and unanimously adopted UN resolution also provides for the demilitarisation of Abyei and the deployment of a 4200 strong Ethiopian peacekeeping force to monitor Northern withdrawal and the human rights situation.

Whether the fragile peace will hold remains to be seen. But with unresolved questions over oil revenue, a fear amongst Al-Bashir and his henchmen that opposition to their rule will spread, and the ever-unpredictable factor of violent local militias such as the Lords Resistance Arm (LRA), nobody doubts that the worlds youngest state will face tremendous and violent challenges from the moment it comes into being.

The final sovereignty of Abyei must be resolved as a matter of urgency - and the peacekeeping force's mandate must be extended until this happens, lest the ongoing dispute deteriorates once again into violence. The international community must ensure the protection of groups loyal to the South but based in the North - firstly to prevent massacres and secondly to avoid Southern intervention across the border that could trigger a fresh conflict. And the North must be prevented from funding, arming and training militia seeking to destabilise the South; Al-Bashir's involvement with vile and ruthless groups including the LRA and the militia of George Athor- simply with the aim destabilising his neighbours and enemies, has gone of for far too long. Should South Sudan collapse internally that would ultimately not bode well for the people of any state in the region - including North Sudan.

Finally the South's rebel-force-turned-government, the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement, must be held to account. Whilst facing threats from an array of abhorrent forces including Al-Bashir and various rebel groups, it must meet the standards of human rights and democracy that its people deserve. Too many African governments have come to power as liberators, only to become oppressors themselves. Positive moves such as the demobilisation of child soldiers should be commended and supported; slides towards authoritarianism must be condemned.

July 9th will be a historic day for Sudan, for Africa and for the world. It will mark the end of a long, hard struggle. And the start of a new one.

The Abyei Factor

South Sudan’s transition to independence was never going to be easy.  The people’s overwhelming desire for secession from the North expressed in January’s referendum was only the start.  The following month, disgruntled militias opposed to the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) autonomous government, set off a vicious spate of killings and reprisals which this week crossed the grim milestone of 1000 deaths.  The violence has included the murder World Food Programme staff, prompting the organisation to withdraw from large swathes of the state-to-be and leaving some 240 000 people without critical food rations.  Some commentators are now speculating that as violence and hunger spreads, the Republic of South Sudan could collapse as soon as it comes into being on July 9th.

Worryingly, this may not even be the biggest threat that the international community’s newest member faces.  After initially declaring that he would formally recognise the imminent declaration of independence, the (North) Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is now rolling back on his commitment, due to disputes surrounding the oil-rich region of Abyei.  As part of the peace agreement that ended the two-decade-long Sudanese Civil War and led to the Southern referendum, Abyei was set to hold its own plebiscite.  However, neither the buoyed South nor the wounded North has been prepared to make any compromise in detailed talks and consequently the vote yet to take place.  Ominously, as fighting spreads across Abyei, Al-Bashir has openly stated that his dictatorial government will “never ever recognise” an independent South Sudanese state that includes it.

Already many analysts had suggested that the indicted war criminal and his henchmen had a hand in the South’s current instability - well founded claims given their long and abhorrent record of destabilising neighbours through funding and arming various violent militias.  Refusing to recognise the new republic could however, mark a dramatic and dangerous shift from unofficial interference to re-inciting full scale warfare.  One way or another the South is seceding and if the North fails to accept this, a regional conflict dragging in not only the two states but close neighbours and the UN Peacekeeping force currently stationed in the middle, seems almost an inevitability.

Key players in the faltering peace deal are rapidly taking visible steps to ensure that this does not happen.  Today’s lifting of US sanctions on a bank responsible for much of al-Bashir’s financial backing, whilst not formally a response to the situation, was almost certainly designed to bring the tyrant ‘back on-side’.  There is certainly a strong chance that the move was accompanied by direct communication from the Obama administration, especially considering that the US is still holding out the prospect of removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terror, should the South’s secession pass off smoothly. 

Still it remains to be seen whether such moves will be enough to avoid a fresh North-South conflict come July and the situation is further complicated by continuing state violence in the Western Region of Darfur.  Ignoring the calls of activists worldwide, international heavyweights have recently provided only vocal opposition to the genocide there, not wanting to jeopardise their position in negotiations over Southern Independence;  however this stance will become increasingly difficult to maintain as Darfurians seek to replicate events in Tunisia and Egypt by organising mass protests.  If the Sudanese government continues its massacres in Darfur, nations such as the USA and UK may be compelled to halt their lucrative economic overtures to Al-Bashir, thus reducing their influence on issues of territory and secession –including those concerning Abyei.

The birthday of the Republic of South Sudan is little over two months away – yet a peaceful transition still seems a long way off.  Whilst stability and aid for the South is crucial, Abyei is quickly emerging as the key issue.  The ten and a half thousand square kilometre territory  could yet be the cause of a catastrophic military conflict that would dramatically overshadow even the worse breakdown of order in the new state. With the clock ticking and a genocidal dictator sitting at the negotiating table, every party involved is going to have to pull out all the stops over the coming weeks. 

Technorati Tags: Abyei,South Sunda,referendum,Omar al-Bashir

The hand of Al-Bashir?

In South Sudan the scenes of jubilation that followed a 99% referendum vote to secede from the North, have faded into fear and terror. The turbulent birth that I examined in an article last month is already beginning to unfold and with one hundred and forty eight days to go before formal independence the young state is already facing chaos.  

The first significant post-referendum violence to transpire was the murder of Jimmy Lemi Milla –a minister in the South’s current autonomous government. This was quickly followed by a horrific slaughter in Jonglei, where over two hundred men, woman and children were killed by militia loyal to rebel leader George Athor; with many forced at gunpoint into a fast flowing river.  In addition to its abhorrent death toll the latter of these incidents may be the more ominous for South Sudan’s future as whilst Lemi Milla’s murder appears to be a somewhat personal or isolated incident, reports surrounding the Jonglei massacre suggest that the militia’s arms may have come from the Northern government.

This would suggest a concerted effort by genocidal dictator Omar Al-Bashir and his henchmen to destabilise and undermine the South before its independence day even arrives.  Having allowed the referendum and restrained from the direct military attacks that  many commentators feared, in return for lucrative trade deals and softer political stances from the likes of Cameron and Obama, Al-Bashir may have just called everyone’s bluff and (whilst reaping the benefits of his ‘cooperation’) launched a far more covert campaign of terror.

Why?  The reasons are numerous.  Aside from some kind of perverse revenge against the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement for winning the independence struggle (and ruling out the prospect of sharing oil revenue with the North), Al-Bashir can send out powerful political signals by inciting chaos in South Sudan.  To the people of Darfur this will be a thinly-veiled threat that even if they ever secure autonomy or independence he can still punish them.  To the international community this will be poignant warning that South faces turmoil and thus a lure to his side over still-disputed border demarcation issues, including oil-rich territory of Abyei; which was supposed to hold a referendum of whether to join the North or South in January, but is still the subject of on-going negotiations.  In the choice between whether Abyei should join a state racked with civil conflict or one that is authoritarian but moderately stable, most outsiders- desperate for fuel security- will hedge their bets with the North and could well weigh in on the matter.

There are also regional power issues at play.  Al-Bashir’s Sudan, currently the biggest state in Africa, is about the loose huge swathes of its territory, its population and its resources.  His government will already feel neutered and will be loathe to see a prosperous, independent South Sudan making formal treaties with old enemies such as Uganda, spending its new-found oil wealth on development and exercising political sway with surrounding states and within the African Union.  Violence and pandemonium between now and 9th July can only help to undermine that.

So the motive is there, but this on it’s own is not enough to suggest that the hand of Al-Bashir is at work.  What strengthens the case is the fact that the indicted war criminal has previous form when it comes to supporting local militia with the aim of destabilising a region.  Most infamously, Al-Bashir funded and armed the murderous Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA); despatching Joseph Kony and his band of child soldiers to South Sudan at various points during the 1983-2005 civil war and more recently to murder and pillage in Darfur.  Indeed, support from Kartoum is widely regarded as one of the key reasons why the LRA has been able to continue reaping terror across central Africa for so long.  It would fit with his modus operandi, therefore to covertly support George Athor’s force. 

Athor himself was once a prominent military player in the SPLM but has been launching attacks since loosing his bid to become a non-partisan governor in the 2010 autonomous elections.  He has long been linked to the North by the Southern government and his recent acquisition of copious landmine and AK-47 supplies only back-up these suspicions.  Undoubtedly the biggest current threat to the new state’s stability, he could well have replaced Kony as the Northern government’s newest deadly puppet.  South Sudan may have one it’s independence, but it is far from free of Al-Bashir’s tyranny.