Bahrain, Libya and the mountain to climb

As the winds of change continue to blow unabated through North Africa and the Middle East, major developments are once again coming minute-by-minute. It is virtually impossible to address the events currently unfolding in Bahrain and Libya without any analysis being out-dated as soon as it is written. However, one thing is strikingly clear: success in these democratic revolutions looks like it will be be even harder to achieve than it was in Tunisia and Egypt.

That is not to belittle the enormous accomplishments of those who brought down Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, nor to ignore their martyrs; few could ever forget police officers opening fire of demonstrators in El Kef or pro-regime thugs launching brutal attacks in Tahrir Square. However, the challenge faced by Bahraini and Libyan demonstrators is even more ferocious. Flagrant attacks on funeral processions by King Khalifa’s troops and the murder of up to one hundred and twenty citizens by Colonel Gaddafi’s, illustrate just how high the mountain to freedom is.

The reasons behind this are numerous; with several differing between Bahrain and Libya. The former’s tiny geographical area (less that 1% the size of the Irish Republic) makes it easier for Khalifa’s regime to control than a large and diverse territory; whilst the army’s huge proportion of foreign soldiers (often Pakistani or Syrian) means there are less qualms about opening fire on civilians- these are not after all, “the troops’ own people”. In Libya Gaddafi’s long-standing practice of bestowing generous patronage on leading political and military figures has given him a wide base of powerful allies; whilst the genuine loyalty that several officials and citizens offer him on ideological grounds further bolsters his position.

Other factors are common to both cases. Government restrictions on internet access in Bahrain and Libya are far stronger than they were in Tunisia and Egypt, hindering the ability of the demonstrators to communicate with each other or the outside world in the same manner (in Libya the authorities even went as far as depriving whole areas of electricity). Perhaps even more significantly however; the Obama administration’s bumbling and confused response has once again failed to produce any kind of international support that could genuinely tip the balance in favour of those seeking democratic reform. Whilst rhetoric about the will of the people and calls for restraint have been forthcoming, concerns about US and wider ‘Western’ interests are blocking robust responses, even more blatantly than during the Egyptian uprising. The long process of normalising relations with Gaddafi, Bahrain’s hosting of the US 5th Fleet, speculation of Iranian influence over the Bahraini movement (ignoring the fact that it involves both Sunni and Shiite Bahrainis -the majority of whom have no connection to Iran) and fear that instability will spread to Saudi Arabia (the US and UK’s key Middle Eastern ally) are tragically taking precedent over support for human rights, democracy and justice.

Combined, these facts present a daunting and somewhat bleak picture; however just as they did in Tunisia and Egypt those calling for democracy are defying all odds. Tonight there are scenes of celebration in Pearl Square (already being dubbed “Bahrain’s Tahrir”) after King Khalifa succumbed to the demands of demonstrators and pulled back his troops for the first time since they took control of it in a bloody massacre earlier this week. Meanwhile in Libya, thousands of people are still on the streets in the biggest show of defiance against Gaddafi since he took power forty two years ago. The cracks are starting to show.

These struggles for freedom may be harder than those in Tunisia and Egypt…but the people are rising to the challenge.

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The times they are a-changin’

Many years ago, when I first became involved in human rights work, I was told something that has stuck with me and shaped my activism ever since: nobody sees the end of a dictatorship coming. Campaigning for freedom in Burma, Tibet, Zimbabwe or North Korea may seem hopeless and at times will undoubtedly be disheartening, but the struggles for freedom in South Africa, East Timor and the Soviet Union all once seemed the same.

I’ve heard it so many times since and in so many different forms that I’m not even sure who first said it to me. There is even an episode of Ashes to Ashes when Alex Drake tells a member of the ANC that in a few years Nelson Mandela will walk off Roben Island and become South Africa’s first democratically elected President – of course he cannot believe her, so hopeless did his cause appear at the time.

As I write this, approaching midnight on January 14th 2011this mantra is once more being played out. Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali – one of the world’s longest-ruling dictators – is on board a private jet attempting to seek refuge in various countries, having fled Tunisia this afternoon in the wake of unprecedented pro-democracy protests. For 23 years Ben Ali has deprived the Tunisian people of political rights, civil society and religious freedom. His security services have arbitrarily jailed opponents, subjected them to horrendous tortures and broken up political dissent with ruthlessness and impunity. He has brutalised a nation of ten and a half million for his own personal gain. And now he is gone.

What is even more striking than such a well-entrenched dictatorship coming to a close is the sudden and abrupt manner in which in has done so. It was less than one month ago that this wave of protests began. A university graduate- unable to find work in an economy wrecked by governmental corruption and incompetence- took to selling fruit in a public square. Taking exception to his unauthorised trading, police officers beat him and confiscated his cart. On 17th December he returned to the square and set himself on fire in protest. His death led to protests in solidarity…the murder of demonstrators by armed police officers brought more angry citizens out onto the streets…the initial anger over economic mismanagement and heavy handed policing quickly evolved into demands for democracy…and the rest is history in the making.

Of course Tunisia is not ‘out of the woods’ -not by a long shot. Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi has temporarily assumed power but whether he can –or will – oversee a peaceful transition to liberal democracy is a huge question. The next moves by other government members and various opposition groups could all influence the eventual outcome in any number of ways. The future is far from certain.

However, tonight the street protests have given way to street parties – the Tunisian people have toppled a dictator. And already similar protests in neighbouring Algeria are serving to reinforce a message to dictators across the world; even the most well-established regimes can face wholly unexpected and rapidly terminal challenges. The concurrent message to activists is that, wherever you campaign for freedom – and however bleak the outlook may seem- your day will come.